SCEC's "M8" earthquake simulation breaks computational records, promises faster and more detailed models of future earthquakes

A multi-disciplinary team of researchers presented the world’s most advanced earthquake shaking simulation at the Supercomputing 2010 (SC10) conference this week in New Orleans. The research was selected as a finalist for the Gordon Bell Prize, awarded at the annual conference for outstanding achievement in high-performance computing applications.
The “M8” simulation models how the ground will shake in a magnitude 8.0 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. The simulation covers a larger area, in greater detail, than previously possible. Perhaps most importantly, the development of the M8 simulation advances the state-of-the-art in terms of the speed and efficiency at which such calculations can be performed.
The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) at the University of Southern California (USC) was the lead coordinator in the project. San Diego Supercomputer Center (SDSC) researchers provided the high-performance computing and scientific visualization expertise for the simulation. Scientific details of the earthquake were developed by scientists at San Diego State University (SDSU). Ohio State University (OSU) researchers were also part of the collaborative effort to improve the efficiency of the software involved.
“The scientific results of this massive simulation are very interesting, and its level of detail has allowed us to observe things that we were not able to see in the past,” said Kim Olsen, professor of geological sciences at SDSU, and lead seismologist of the study. Olsen noted that high-rise buildings are more susceptible to the low-frequency, or a roller-coaster-like motion, while smaller structures usually suffer more damage from the higher-frequency shaking, which feels more like a series of sudden jolts.
“The problem we face in earthquake science is that we actually don’t have recordings of very large earthquakes needed to predict the ground motions of the next one,” Jordan said. The best option is then to create scenarios of such earthquakes based on as many details of the earth and the physics involved as possible, and for a broader a range of frequencies, as was done in the M8 simulation. The results are both broadly useful data as well basic research insights into earthquake processes.
“Earthquakes have a lot of variability,” Jordan said. “M8 is one particular guess of what an earthquake would look like. We are developing the technologies and resources to model many such scenarios.” more...

INVESTIGATORS
Kim Olsen (SDSU), Yifeng Cui (SDSC), Philip Maechling (SCEC)

SCEC.org Home > M8 Simulation